The project is funded by the Directorate-General for Information Society and Media (DG INFSO) of the European Commission. It is a follow-up of the study ‘Evaluation Models and Tools for Assessment of Innovation and Sustainable Development at the EU level’ which was carried out by the College of Europe for DG INFSO in 2006. The project runs from January through December 2009. It is being carried out by a team of researchers of the College of Europe and the University of Denver.

The purpose of the project is to develop an enhanced quantitative tool to better understand the adoption and impact of information and communication technologies (ICT). ICT is a general purpose technology (GPT) which cannot be fully understood in the framework of the production function. A new model which allows for including structural change in the function is therefore needed.

Previous studies recommended combining the SETI model (structural model) with the International Futures (IFs) modelling system (macro-model). The latter has been developed by researchers of the University of Denver which is the consortium partner of the College of Europe in this research project.

In the first phase of the study, key data and indicators for modelling the impact of ICT on different developments (e.g. economic growth or energy consumption) will be identified. ICT will be conceptualised as both a dependent variable and an independent variable: it is ‘driven’ by certain variables and it also ‘drives’ other variables (see figure below). Questions addressed are as follows: Through which channels does structural change affect ICT? Through which channels is structural change affected by ICT? The first phase of the study should allow extending the SETI and IFs model to better reflect the drivers and impact of ICT.

In the second phase of the study, a tool will be created to formulate and assess different policy scenarios. The short and long-term impacts of different policy interventions will be quantified in view of helping DG INFSO to identify policy recommendations. Furthermore, training sessions for Commission officials will be organised. The Commission staff will learn how to operate the model and alter its parameters.