Evaluation Models and Tools for Assessment of Innovation and Sustainable Development at the EU level

The study, Evaluation Models and Tools for Assessment of Innovation and Sustainable Development at the EU level; was conducted between December 2005 and October 2006 in the framework of a service contract between the European Commission and the College of Europe, Development Office (Contract n°: 30-CE-0039057/00-28). The research was undertaken by a team of experts including: Paolo Guerrieri (Director), Sara Bentivegna, Giuseppe Espa, Cecilia Jona, Giovanna Jona, Matteo Luciani, Bernardo Maggi, Valentina Meliciani and Pier Carlo Padoan.

The Final Report (200 pages) presents all findings in their technical details and provides an in-depth overview of the methodology, policy simulations, the underlying theoretical framework, and the literature references. The Report as well as the Final Report Paper including an Executive summary can be downloaded below:

Download Executive Summary (3 p.)

Download Final Report Paper (30 p.)

Download Draft Final Report (detailed 200 p. version)

Download Interim Report

Download Appendix (Interim Report)

“Modelling ICT as a General Purpose Technology” Collegium n° 35

MODELLING ICT AS A GENERAL PURPOSE TECHNOLOGY

The aim of the study was to review and evaluate the existing models and methods to analyse and test the impact of innovation and ICT investment on growth, employment and social inclusion in Europe. To assess the usefulness for impact analyses the study has focused on both the economic content (richness and detail of relationships and feedback mechanisms included in the models) and the methodological aspects.

The main findings on the modelling of ICT are:

• The comparison and evaluation of a set of existing Computable General Equilibrium models has shown that the International Futures (IFs) is particularly adequate to perform simulation exercises since it includes a specific ICT sector and it allows ICT to exert its impact on the economy via different channels.

• A complementary approach to modelling the impact of ICT using CGE models, is offered, based on simulations carried out with SETI, a small multi-country structural model, which allows considering ICT as an endogenous variable. It also permits the modelling of interaction between ICT, the structure of the economy, and a number of facilitating factors.

• Concerning data and indicators, research shows that information on ICT is still sparse and of low quality in statistical terms. The study considered three databases and identified a core data set that has been obtained as a combination of two data sources (GGDC and STAN OECD) with some overlap.

Modelling the ICT impact on performance, using the IFs and SETI models has emphasised that:

• ICT is a general purpose technology (GPT) since it leads to massive and radical changes in many industries and sectors in an economy. A central feature of ICT is that its impact on productivity and therefore on performance is “indirect”, rather than direct.

• Factors determining ICT investment and diffusion are numerous; regulatory and business environment (so called “facilitating factors”) are of crucial importance, however very difficult to be translated into a quantitative analysis.

• The relationship between ICT and the structure of the economy is crucial to understanding the channels through which such an indirect effect takes place, as well as how strong such an impact will be.

• Moreover, the relationship between ICT and the ‘facilitating’ structure (i.e the business environment) is also very important to understanding the extent to which the economic system is prepared to receive and use ICT.

• ICT investment can be boosted by a number of policy strategies such as:
  * more investment in human capital;
  * lower start up costs for business and lower barriers to labour mobility;
  * more investment in R&D;
  * deeper integration in the service market.